2012 Breeders Cup Predictions

by jason

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The 2012 Breeders Cup will be hosted at the Santa Anita Park. There are 15 races on the schedule over two days this year and the event will run on Friday, November 2nd 2012 to Saturday, November 3rd 2012. With there being just over a week until the event we can start making our predictions, as it’s unlikely there will be many changes to the field at this point.

Ante post odds are out on a number of the 2012 Breeders Cup races, but keep in mind that when you bet ante post you risk that the horses you select may not run in the race. We’re going to post our predictions for each of the races with ante post odds and we’ll also share the top contenders in the other races that we’re looking to bet on next weekend at Santa Anita Park.

2012 Breeders Cup Classic Pick

  • Game On Dude to Win +300 (4.00)

I predict game on dude to win the breeders cup classicGame On Dude is the horse to beat in the $5M 2012 Breeders Cup Classic on Saturday. Last year Game On Dude finished this race in 2nd place behind Drosselmeyer and so far this year the Bob Baffert trained thoroughbred has 4 wins in 6 races. The two losses this year for Game on Dude were in the Dubai World Cup (G1) and Pacific Classic (G1), both of which were held on artificial tracks.

In 2012 Game On Dude has won the San Antonio (G2) at Santa Anita, Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) at Hollywood Park and Awesome Again (G1) at Santa Anita. Both of the wins at SA were at 1 1/8 miles, so the Breeders Cup Classic is slightly longer at 1 ¼ miles. At the end of the day Game On Dude is the most consistent horse in the field and +300 fixed odds is better than you’ll get race day.

There are a handful of other horses that could win this year as well and the field is fairly wide open. Some of the contenders that you should keep an eye on this week include Mucho Macho Man (+1100), Dullahan (+900) and Ron The Greek (+1300). Dullahan has had a great year including 3rd place in the Kentucky Derby, but he has dropped off except for a win on synthetics.

Out of the bunch that round out Game On Dude in this race I like Ron The Greek the best. The thoroughbred is paying +1300 at the moment and has done well this year except for in his last race, which was a 6th place finish in the Jockey Gold Club Cup. At the start of the year he won the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) at 1 ¼ miles and I think he’ll prove to be the best competition.

2012 Breeders Cup Mile Pick

  • Wise Dan +250 (3.50)

The 2012 Breeders Cup Mile is one of the most anticipated races at the festival next month. The 1-mile turf race has a handful of great horses in the mix this year, but I’m backing the Lopresti trained thoroughbred. This year Wise Dan has raced 5 times in the USA and Canada. He has won 4 races and in his only loss he finished in 2nd place at the Stephen Foster Handicap (G1).

Wise Dan won the Ben Ali Stakes (G3), Fourstardave Handicap (G2), Ricoh Woodbine Mile Stakes (G1) and the Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes (G1) this year and was in very good form while winning these races. The biggest competition will come from the favorite in the race, which is the Aidan O’Brien trained horse Excelebration (+187) who is coming over from Ireland.

Excelebration has raced 5 times in 2012 and has 3 first finishes plus 2 second place finishes. He won a G1 stakes race at Deauville in August and is in good form. Moonlight Cloud (+500) is another horse I like in the 2012 Breeders Cup Mile. The British horse is trained by Freddie Head and this year the horse has had a gruelling workload that includes 3 G1 stakes races in the UK.

At the end of the day I selected Wise Dan as the winner in the race because I’m not sure how the two UK horses will travel and I feel more confident with the American raced horse. I’m also betting a boxed exacta with Wise Dan and Moonlight Cloud, simply due to the success of Freddie in this race (He was the trainer of Goldikova who won this race three consecutive years 2008-10).

2012 Breeders Cup Juvenile Pick

  • Shanghai Bobby +100 (2.00)

Shanghai Bobby should be a winning pick in the juvenile cupHere is another race where it’s difficult to find value, so I won’t spend long talking about the 2012 Breeders Cup Juvenile race. I picked the favorite Shanghai Bobby who is undefeated and has four wins in 2012. The 8.5 furlong race on the dirt track is about having speed and enough stamina to last the trip. Shanghai Bobby won the 1-mile Champagne (G1) at Belmont Park last time out.

The 2-year old colt is trained by the legendary Todd Pletcher and my money is on Shanghai Bobby remaining undefeated. The big competition in the race is expected to come from either Power Broker (+100) or Title Contender (+600). Both of these colts are trained by Bob Baffert. Both colts come into this race off a victory, but Power Broker was much more impressive.

Power Broker won the FrontRunner (G1) at Santa Anita last month at 1 1/16 mile, which is the same distance as this race. This is a colt that can stay the trip and has won as this distance on the dirt already at SA. You really have to decide between the two big favorites in the race and I went with Shanghai Bobby. Power Broke was impressive last time out, but that’s his only win.

2012 Breeders Cup Turf Pick

  • Shareta +400 (5.00)

The $3M purse in the Breeders Cup Turf race draws the best long distance turf horses in the world. Lately the European and UK horses have been dominating this race and that’s unlikely to change this year. Acclamation is injured and now the best shot that the Americans have at winning the 2012 Breeders Cup Turf lies in one of the favourites Point of Entry (+200).

Point of Entry has 5 wins and 1 4th place finish on the turf this year in the USA, but the competition that he’s up against isn’t that tough when compared to the UK. Point of Entry has won 3 G1 stakes races this year and should contend in the Breeders Cup Turf, but my pick is Shareta. Shareta is trained by Royer-Dupre and the 4-year old filly has two G1 wins this year.

Shareta won the Yorkshire Oaks and Prix Vermeille, both tracks were 1 ½ miles on turf. Shareta will be bale to stay the trip and I think will win the race over Point of Entry and last year’s winner St Nicholas Abbey (+200). St. Nicholas Abbey will place in this race, but with only 1 win on the year in the Coronation Cup (G1) at Epsom I’m not confident the 5-year old horse will repeat.

2012 Breeders Cup Ladies Classic Pick

  • Love & Pride +900 (10.00)

On Friday the 2012 Breeders Cup Ladies Classic is the last race on the card at roughly 7:30PM. The race has a $2M purse and there are a handful of fillies and mares that could end up winning this highly contested G1 race. The 4-year old filly Royal Delta (+100) is expected to win the 2012 Breeders Cup Ladies Classic after winning 3 races this year including a G1 race and two G2 races.

I’m backing Love & Pride who has won her last two races. The 4-year old filly won the Personal Ensign Stakes (G1) at Saratoga in August and then last month won the Zenyatta (G1) at Santa Anita. Awesome Feather (+600) is an undefeated 4-year old filly, but she has only raced twice this year and neither of the races were graded, so I’m passing on Awesome Feather.

My Miss Aurelia (+400) is an undefeated 3-year old filly that is coming into the 2012 Breeders Cup Ladies Classic with a recent win in the Cotillion Stakes (G1) at the end of last month. This is going to be one of the closest showdowns during the festival and I’m backing an underdog that’s paying out 9/1 if you bet into the fixed odds market currently.

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